Apple could sell 9 million Macs in 2007

Was it just five years ago that Apple Computer was struggling with a major shift in platform architecture and facing a new and improved version of Windows? It was, and back then more than a few technology commentators and anonymous nerds on the Internet were predicting the end for Apple Computer. Well, the more things stay the same, the more they change. Five years later Apple Computer is again challenged by a shift in platform architecture and a new and improved version of Windows, but that's where the similarity ends. Rather than doomsayers predicting the end, we have soothsayers projecting a big year for Apple in 2007. Credit Jeff Gamet at the MacObserver for the jaw-dropping quote from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster.

"We believe Mac market share can grow by 1 percent again in CY07, ending the year at around 4 percent, with an average for the year of 3.5 percent. In our estimation, an increase in Mac market share to 3.5 percent would lead to upside to Street CY07 EPS of $0.34 or 11.6 percent."

That would be a jump from around 2.8 percent of the market now, and could work out to a staggering 9 million Macs sold in 2007. Even the most zealous Mac enthusiast might have a hard time believing that, if it weren't for the fact that last quarter Mac sales surged to 1.6 million, and it is looking increasingly possible that Apple could sell 2 million Macs this holiday quarter.

What is behind this good news for the Mac? Scott Ferguson at eWeek attributes it to four factors in Munster's analysis, even though I only counted three.

* Transition to Intel
* iPod Halo Effect
* Boot Camp

Certainly each of those would make sense, and another possibility would be the popular perception that Windows has security issues. Unfortunately, it's unlikely the reason for the Mac's resurgence can ever be definitively proven, due both to a lack of public information and likely overlap between possibilities, but one point can no longer be debated.

The Mac is back.